
See here. Few small problems. Apparently they can't get the user interface software working right. And countries aren't placing orders. And the manufacturing partner won't give the same discounts for tiny orders as they could for the big order that Herr Professor Nicholas Negroponte originally promised.
Frankly I'm shocked to see these guys having problems. I mean, a brand new hardware design, a new screen technology, a customized Linux operating system, a one-off user interface, and the customers are the poorest nations in the world, and they'll be paying with government money which means they have to get politicians to vote on orders, and they'll have to place huge orders with no pilot programs, and the kids will have these things tossed in their laps and be expected to write code and do all their own maintenance, and the whole project will be run by woolly academics who have never even worked in a real company let alone run one. What could possibly go wrong?
Remember all those big, splashy, gushing, goofy, stupid, incredibly naive stories in all the major publications about the Hundred Dollar Laptop? Remember the cover story in the NY Times Magazine about how this was going to save the world? Remember the insanely stupid 60 Minutes piece? Ever wonder why nobody, and I mean nobody, ever stopped to think about whether the whole thing could actually work? Or even to question how it was going to work? Did you notice that nobody looked at the business realities? Did anyone even consider looking at Negroponte's disastrous track record and his utter lack of experience? Did anyone point out what a ridiculous waste of space the entire MIT Media Lab has been? Of course not. Partly it's because no reporter wanted to pee on Negroponte's shoes and get branded as a meany and a kid-hater and a racist by the noisy freetards who backed this silly project.
But there's another reason nobody scrutinized this project and it's much more scary. The truth is, the average filthy hack knows even less about business than the average MIT professor. They simply don't even know what questions to ask. Just like the professors, the hacks have never worked in a company. They've never dealt with suppliers. They've never haggled over prices. They've never developed a product. They've never taken a programming course, let alone shipped a piece of commercial code. They have no idea. But why let facts get in the way of a great story? We're going to give laptops to all the poor children, and change the world, and these laptops will be better than anything you can get from Apple or Microsoft and they'll only cost a hundred dollars each. Wow! Putting these hacks together with these professors and letting them sell this train wreck in the media was an incredibly dangerous idea. Or incredibly hilarious, depending on your point of view.
Now what I wonder is this. Do you think the New York Times Magazine and 60 Minutes and all the others who touted this disaster will go take a second look and hold Negroponte's feet to the fire? Nah. Not anytime soon anyway. If they do anything it will be long after the whole project has failed and Negroponte will have worked up a long list of people to blame -- the politicians in Third World countries, the manufacturers, the component suppliers, the competitors. ("They tried ... to compete against us. Gasp! Can you imagine? What kind of monsters are these people?") Or maybe Intel and Microsoft, since he's already teed them up as the bad guys in previous coverage.
Somehow, trust me, the whole thing will be presented as a sad tragedy, and Double-N will be the hero who struggled against all odds but could not overcome the forces of evil that amassed against him. Much better story than saying he was a daffy professor who bullshitted his way into a project that never made any sense in the first place, and predictably failed. (Photo: Burt Hammer, MIT Media Lab.)
Sunday, September 16, 2007
$100 laptop: Now $200, and delayed again
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Steve
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42 comments:
Brilliant analysis FS, but you should also look it this an opportunity to bring a childlike sense of wonder to the poor bastards in Africa and the Middle East who haven't been blessed with the ability to look up passages of their favorite religious text online (did somebody say pron?).
Slap a generating crank on Jonathan's beautiful old iBook clamshell, and offer it to third world despots for $299 a pop.
Business realities aside, I've never seen any evidence that the pedagogical outcomes of this project have been given careful consideration. You might forgive academics for not understanding business fundamentals, but it's not so easy to excuse them for overlooking educational ones.
Yes, when nearly the entire US press came out waving and cheering the Bush administration for the Iraq war and now four years or so later are wringing their hands over and pretending that they never really meant what they said (step forward NYT!) you'd be forgiven for thinking that those people don't actually know what they're writing/talking about.
Well FSJ, time to step up to the plate and lend them a hand. Imagine the childlike wonder - warm & fuzzy feelings generated by having millions of children worldwide opening their 100$-bacbook for the first time. Lots' o Namaste for you ;)
You keep harping on this guy and he's gonna focus on you with those big lenses of his and take you out... or at least give you a severe sunburn.
I wonder if Double-N, if he was truly a free-thinking, world saver, ever considered refurbing existing, already consumed natural resources old computers (they are plentiful) and shipping them to deserving others. As for the whole power question, if the region doesn't have power, it's not likely to have much else and FOOD & SHELTER should be a no. 1 concern, and not computers.
I bet you could refurb a free/donated box for cheap and ship it for under $100, but what do I know? I only WORK in the industry.
FSJ, you are being too hard on them.
When RSJ and Woz were hacking out the original Apple I and II machines in the garage, did they know more than these MIT guys?
You need to create a witty nickname for this dude.
This actually isn't that bad of an idea. And this $100 laptop is remarkably like the old eMate 300. Of course it will probably fail but they're not hurting anyone by trying. Just because something looks incredibly complicated on paper is no excuse for not attempting it.
Nice. I have to say, honestly, well put.
"I wonder if Double-N, if he was truly a free-thinking, world saver, ever considered refurbing existing, already consumed natural resources old computers (they are plentiful) and shipping them to deserving others. As for the whole power question, if the region doesn't have power, it's not likely to have much else and FOOD & SHELTER should be a no. 1 concern, and not computers.
I bet you could refurb a free/donated box for cheap and ship it for under $100, but what do I know? I only WORK in the industry."
1. Bill Gates Foundation for all the childlike wonder of your mum not dying before you turn like 5 years old.
2a. Give the kids each a MacBook! End of story freetards! Seriously, the friggin Apple One-To-One laptop program, have you heard of it ???! http://www.apple.com/education/k12/onetoone/
2b. Obviously, some government/ billionaire/ dictator should subsidise the MacBooks for the kiddies.
3. Oh, and I live in a ex-colonized-by-those-Brits 3rd-world-country. I am considered upper class though, thanks to my Dad having done Medicine in the motherland (UK). Africa is kinda 4th-world, sadly. Asia and South America is 3rd-world.
"FSJ, you are being too hard on them.
When RSJ and Woz were hacking out the original Apple I and II machines in the garage, did they know more than these MIT guys?"
Heh. RSJ and Woz probably knew much less than the MIT nerds. That's why they succeeded commercially in the end. Too much nowledge is dangerous :)
It's kinda weird for like since I was 15 until 25 I had a big sense of child-like wonder about MIT and especially (you wouldn't believe how obsessed I was) about the Media Lab.
Since actually making out with girls and having *a real friggin job* for the past 10 years... well... heh. Screw the Media Lab. It's been not so ding-in-the-universe outside the (certainly very impactful and important) MIT-Boston-USA ecosystem. IMHO.
Academia is good. It serves its purpose. However the $100 laptop is just not a good commercialisation/ tech-coming-out-of-the-incubator kind of thing. Linux... sigh. Might as well give these kids an AK-47 to shoot themsel... wait, most of them already have those.
It's about time someone pointed out the truth. Even if that someone is fake.
FSJ, I bow to your superior analytical and rhetorical skills.
What?!? You mean the people that write tech articles don't really know anything? You mean that they just skim through a press release and then try to get the word count to work for their editor? NO WAY!!!!
I thought for sure that every writer on the tech beat personally ran their own company and then decided to leave for the hallowed halls of Journalism where they spend uncountable paid hours doing meticulously researching cutting edge advances in all tech fields, their weekends working on an Executive MBA from Stanford in Leadership, and their spare time working on a PhD in advanced microelectronics...
It is a nice idea, but I've never understood how the economics could possibly work anytime soon. Put a color LCD into a clamshell case with just a battery and a crank and whatever else is needed to connect them, and already I'll bet you're over $100 wholesale. Add in the rest of the guts, and I don't how even $188 is possible. Maybe in 5-10 years, but not now.
"Business realities aside, I've never seen any evidence that the pedagogical outcomes of this project have been given careful consideration. You might forgive academics for not understanding business fundamentals, but it's not so easy to excuse them for overlooking educational ones."
And how many people understand what the hell you just said there? Its a perfect example of the downhill track the alleged-$100 laptop program is on.
this is actually my favorate topic.
100 laptop sucks, unless its designed, built, distributed and maintaned purely by us CHINESE blood.
Since when Big Fat Yankees start to save the world using COMMUNISM? LMAO.
Gee, FSJ, anyone study the pedagogical outcomes of cramming elementary schools with ibooks? Or do you actually give a shit as long the school board's check clears?
Also, your obsessive fascination with hygiene is getting a little out of control. I doubt the real SJ is quite so OCD on the topic. Sometimes you're pretty funny but the "dirty dirty freetard" thing is just lame.
I dunno. Maybe Howard Hughes gets off on it, wherever he is these days.
The eMate was a fantastic object way to underpowered and useless at that time to be a useful tool. BTW, I was a Newton fan… The Psion Netbook was as well a very nice profile before they decided to install Windows. Ick. Why somebody like Apple cannot create a similar product utilizing a reasonably sized, flash based OS with a few gig on top (2 gig?) for $200 or $300 is beyond me. Add a solar cell on the top.
But, the fact of the matter is that an education system utilizing the web is not available at the primary level, and won’t be for a while. Google should put free wifi/wimax in schools and cover whole areas for free. We may see something then, and perhaps after we cease to try and lock kids out of everything outside of the crap that is created for them to learn from.
FSJ,
The $100 laptop project was a hoot from the git go. Most of the countries targeted spend less than that per capita on health care. Did you hear that WHO announced child mortality rates are at a record low? Last year just under 10 million died before age five. And that's a record low. The $100 is better spent elsewhere!
Regarding the media, they can be incredibly sloppy because they've got it made: They hype whatever is going on, and then, when things tank, they hype the failure & blame game. It sells newspapers. They profit on the way up and the way down, just like stock brokers. The mistake is giving them more respect than simpleton middlemen in our comm & money ecosystem.
Vegan Vegan
(Ecosystems 'R Us)
Esteban O'
Please send some Apple Mac Book Pros to Mexico.
Make sure it has that translater widget so when we get to America, I can get a high paying tech job.
Adios
Double-N has sweet glasses.
NN is clearly a bounder as he is wearing a Household Division tie and I am sure he has never served in Her Majesty's finest. No decent Club would allow him through the door.
Hey Fake Steve, your $100 laptop analysis seems pretty spot on, but the Media Lab has something great going on in Scratch. Let's not throw the baby out with the bath water, hmmm? Why can't Apple make something as cool?
I love FSJ for two reasons, trenchant analysis and mordant humor. This post had a heaping helping of the former, nicely spiced with the latter.
Wow, FSJ, you encapsulated the reality of an entire year's worth of OLPC fantasy in one article.
I am humbled.
@various commenters: How can you compare this to Steve & Woz and the creation of Apple? The Apple I, II and the Macintosh were a logical, evolutionary step for the computer industry. They had to be invented when they were invented.
What these kids need now are not laptops. They need water, food, shelter & schools. In that order. When they have those, then perhaps we can talk laptops...
Beautiful article!
Somebody had to say it.
This "laptop" can't even work with an off-the-shelf printer, for God's sake! (hard to believe, isn't it?)
The story of how Negroponte is trying to push this bizarre product down the hungry throat of third world countries is truly horrifying...
Yeah, the $100 laptop program sucks, thats why RSJ offered them Mac OS X, I don't think so!
Missed the mark on this one FSJ.
And the opposite, a computer that all the Kool Aid Drinkers claim is cheaper is actually the most expensive based on features, or even not! - Any Apple notebook of the last 18 years.
Another delay?? Won't anyone think of the children?
Perhaps the UN can organize an emergency air drop of porn to tide the kids over til they can go online themselves.
"Why somebody like Apple cannot create a similar product utilizing a reasonably sized, flash based OS with a few gig on top (2 gig?) for $200 or $300 is beyond me. Add a solar cell on the top."
Except for the solar cell bit, the http://www.apple.com/ipodtouch/ can probably achieve a lot more than the $100 laptop. for maybe US$200 if purchased bulk from Apple.
Solar cell does not make sense unless solar energy is widely used for food, water, TV, satellite, internet (DSL etc), as well as wireless broadband etc.
Put aside calling me a Kool-Aid Apple Fanboy Apologist etc. etc. for just one moment.
Let's honestly think about it. iPod Touch: music and video and all that, think about educational podcasts and instead of games, quizzes. Call me a Trekkie escapist but think of the "PADDS" (tablets) used in the Star Trek shows (Next Gen had quite a bit of children featured) and even Serenity.
Web browsing through a school's WiFi connection. Here in Malaysia, probably nearer the top of the heap of 3rd world countries, about 10 million people in the major metro areas can access broadband (say 1mbit down, 256kbit up), and wireless routers to cover the school (or just the iPod Touch labs) cost about US$20 a pop for government bulk purchases. Maybe US$80 a pop for Airport Extremes.
And the iPod Touch works perfectly with that other wonderful educational tool: books, paper, pencil, notepads (the old skool analog kind) and umm... fresh air (as long as they stay away long enough from the burning garbage dumps*) :)
*disclaimer: Malaysia may or may not contain one or more or none of burning garbage dumps
"Why somebody like Apple cannot create a similar product utilizing a reasonably sized, flash based OS with a few gig on top (2 gig?) for $200 or $300 is beyond me. Add a solar cell on the top."
Except for the solar cell bit, the http://www.apple.com/ipodtouch/ can probably achieve a lot more than the $100 laptop. for maybe US$200 if purchased bulk from Apple.
Solar cell does not make sense unless solar energy is widely used for food, water, TV, satellite, internet (DSL etc), as well as wireless broadband etc.
Put aside calling me a Kool-Aid Apple Fanboy Apologist etc. etc. for just one moment.
Let's honestly think about it. iPod Touch: music and video and all that, think about educational podcasts and instead of games, quizzes. Call me a Trekkie escapist but think of the "PADDS" (tablets) used in the Star Trek shows (Next Gen had quite a bit of children featured) and even Serenity.
Web browsing through a school's WiFi connection. Here in Malaysia, probably nearer the top of the heap of 3rd world countries, about 10 million people in the major metro areas can access broadband (say 1mbit down, 256kbit up), and wireless routers to cover the school (or just the iPod Touch labs) cost about US$20 a pop for government bulk purchases. Maybe US$80 a pop for Airport Extremes.
And the iPod Touch works perfectly with that other wonderful educational tool: books, paper, pencil, notepads (the old skool analog kind) and umm... fresh air (as long as they stay away long enough from the burning garbage dumps*) :)
*disclaimer: Malaysia may or may not contain one or more or none of burning garbage dumps
I say bring back the Apple IIc with an LCD screen.
FSJ,
This piece motivates me to return my BS from MIT and demand a refund....
N.N. and the Media Lab is a bunch of crap. I graduated a few years before this boondoggle opened. It was conceived as a way to shake down industrial sponsors.... they always spouted hard-to-understand-stuff that people thought was impressive. Kind'a like the wine columnists for newspapers. Baffle 'em with bullshit.... is their motto.
WTF do poor African nations need cheap, crippled lab tops? They need revolution--exchange by force a better government for the one that is f-----g them over. Their continent is blessed with natural resources, and fucked by their human resources. They are being screwed by their lousy govmnt's. This dream of $100 laptops is crap-ola drempt up by shits like der Herr Professor Negroasspontificationante. 'yah know, N.N. for short.
Deep in your hear,t FSJ, you know what needs to happen. Rid your board of N.N.'s fellow travellers --- start with fatass Al i'm-so-stupid-i-lost-to-bush-Gore.
These poor nations need help competing and not b.s. hand-downs from government-academic iditots.
but it is not a good news
it would be so funny if mac would have solution for that kids, being that "alternative" like always.......
Right on, Fake Steve.
dt asks about the impact of ibooks in classrooms. There's a huge project in K12 Alaskan schools. Thousands of iBooks have been distributed in very small villages as well as urban districts. Someone must be doing an evaluation of this project between Apple and the Sec. of Education in that state.
Someone said "they're not hurting anyone". I disagree.
Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) can lower transaction costs and provide a step change in access to information and communication. They potentially have an important role to play in emergency relief and international development.
Around 5 or more years ago the development sector invested in ICT projects that did not go well. Perhaps this should be expected as the sector first starts exploring the use of ICTs. Predictably there was a backlash against ICT projects and funding dried up. Now, on a more solid foundation, donors and NGOs are just starting to re-engage with ICTs.
As someone who works in the ICT for development sector, I worry that the high profile failure of a project like OLPC will tar us all with the same brush, and the advantages and opportunities that developing countries could be gaining from ICTs will yet again be set back.
Right, wrong, stupid or genius... I'm just human. I want STUFF and THINGS. And according to some comedian, the Earth wants more plastic..
I say, This OPLC thing could work for everyone. These 3rd world kids don't want food. What kinda fun is bowl of UN air dropped mush? They want stuff. Give them a Laptop. Then, when the laptop isn't fun anymore, they can trade it for real food, like a Big Mac or a Whopper (super-sized I hope). And when is gets tossed for being crap..the Earth will get some more plastic...
But like I said. I like stuff. I want me an OLPC. I don't have any stuff like that yet...
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